2009-H1N1 virus compared with 2019-nCoV

By Austin Thomas

 China was unfortunate to have novel coronavirus during January when the movement of people is high during the Chinese New Year. If it had occurred any other time, the devastating effect would have been very minimal.

However, with the capacity of China, it will be difficult for them but they will definitely contained it sooner rather than later. Their determination and zeal to combat the spread and continue heal patients have been praised by WHO and the international community. We hope that in the next three months this virus would have been contained and the treatment would have been in circulation to cure all.

I want to look at the 2009-H1N1 virus in the United States in 2009 and 2019-nCov in China, I will want to look at the similarity and effect of them in the world and make my comparisons and opinion on them.

When the United States 2009 H1N1 swine flu emerged, it eventually infected 60 million and initially killed a minimum of 18,449 cases that year. But the final story of the H1N1 global pandemic was far worse than that, with close to 300,000 deaths, according to the final tallies in 2012 reported by the CDC.

Which is why I am scratching my head at how bizarrely negative forces are attacking China and Chinese people as it engages a remarkably aggressive front addressing this Corona virus outbreak which started in Wuhan, central China.

During 2009 H1N1 outbreak, I don’t recall xenophobic anti-America attacks across the globe, do you? In fact, do you recall it took six months for the U.S. to declare a national emergency? Did any government from the onset in April 2009 through the end in April 2010, including the month of June, when H1N1 was declared an international emergency global pandemic, then send out a notice to its citizens that they should leave the United States?

Close their borders to American travelers? No! it never happened. For this novel coronavirus in China,I have been reading hateful messages, negative videos of Chinese eating life rates, so on and so forth. Many people believe these stories, but for those who know what the computer and its software can do, will tell you those are all lies and propaganda.  I am reading hateful vicious attacks on the Chinese government for their supposed intentional conspiracy to intentionally under report the number of infections, yet that is exactly and always the case with such flu outbreaks no matter what country and the CDC reports illustrate that crystal clear.

The U.S. H1N1 swine flu numbers were vastly underestimated and updated three years later, because dear friends, that is the nature of such viral outbreaks which don’t care which country they started in. There is never enough man power, there are never enough test kits, and there is never enough medicine or medical supplies. China is not trying to hide these hardships, they are well known, they are being reported on the news daily in China. There are always people who die thousands of them whom we’ll never know if they actually died because of a particular virus. Those are the facts, not any problem unique to China’s healthcare system or government. For me its not a conspiracy, it’s just tragedy.

According to the June 27, 2012 research report follow-up three years later, it gets much more disturbing when you learn about the CDC’s final estimate of the H1N1 virus global death toll. Go to the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy website, the CDC’s 18,449 total deaths number was “…regarded as WELL BELOW THE TRUE TOTAL, mainly because many people who die of flu-related causes are not tested for the disease.” So during the 2009 outbreak, was anyone accusing the American medical and government authorities of hiding the numbers? Were Americans with hidden cameras strolling into the Mayo Clinic to prove how many people were really dying? The absurdity of these vicious attacks are that whether or not a person specifically does have the coronavirus or some other viral bug presenting as pneumonia, the treatment is the same supportive treatment anyway.

Something’s not right here folks. The world should be applauding China’s unprecedented, broad, aggressive response.

“The CDC researchers estimate that the H1N1 2009 pandemic virus caused 201,200 respiratory deaths and another 83,300 deaths from cardiovascular disease associated with H1N1 infections.” Total: 284,000 deaths. Shocking, isn’t it?

Was there a travel ban for any length of time to and from the United States? Did China, Germany, Japan or any other country close their border to American travelers?

Today I noticed in the updates that following the United States Department of State policy suggesting U.S. citizens leave China, the United Kingdom embassy just released the same recommendation to subjects of the kingdom.

In 2009, did UK subjects in America get a notice from their kingdom to leave America? No.

Did the world suggest we isolate America? Close the U.S. borders!? No.

Did Americans get xenophobic attack and targeted by anti-American sentiments like the Chinese are experiencing now? hmmm.

Fascinating and disturbing to say the least. If you’re an expert currently in China, unless you’re in Wuhan, fact is that you’re most likely safer and more peaceful and more stable by simply staying put than by leaving right now. You couldn’t be safer than in this country, where almost everyone is staying home and dutifully isolating themselves with awareness. Not to mention that the Chinese government’s decision to safeguard the society, the families, the people, is coming at a devastating economic cost in the hundreds of billions.

You are in Singapore and you heard there was a virus outbreak in Dallas, Texas in the central United States, it doesn’t mean you would stop going to your favorite local Texas southern BBQ restaurant with the owner from Houston, in Singapore.

There’s a strange senseless bullying extremism and activism in today’s society and you should do your best to avoid it and not be a part of it. It is fomented by a small group of extremist activists while definitely not supported by your average mainstream person who is simply exhausted by their outrage-inducing antics.

Let’s talk about the coronavirus, which started in Wuhan, China. It’s not called the China virus and neither was H1N1 called the America virus. Whether two weeks or two months from now, this flu season type virus will pass and the joy of Spring will arrive. Just like every flu season. However, don’t misunderstand me. The extra caution and the remarkable response by the Chinese governments and people together to quell the spread of this virus was warranted because, yes it is correct that this corona virus is nastier than the usual annual flu bug, as was H1N1 in 2009. As of now, what we can confidently note the following regarding this Corona virus:

This Corona virus is highly contagious, it spreads quite easily. It binds to lung tissue and so in particular, likes to cause pneumonia, that’s what infection of lung tissue is. That’s more severe than a respiratory infection which is only in your throat or bronchial tubes.

The Corona virus currently has a 2% death rate. That’s a lot higher, around 20 times higher, than a more typical annual flu virus with a death rate of 0.1%. However, a 2% death rate is still much lower by comparison to the SARS virus which had a 9% death rate or the MERS virus with a really nasty 37% death rate or the Ebola that had 60% death rate.

The Corona virus is causing severe symptoms in 10-15% of cases. 80% to 90% of deaths from this virus are happening in elderly patients, mostly with other existing health problems, not younger people. That characteristic by the way is in contrast to the America 2009 H1N1 swine flu virus which in fact had a higher death rate amongst younger people including children rather than those over 60 years old.

China identified and shared the Corona virus genome in record times, in only days and of course, immediately shared it with all international health and disease organizations. Medical researchers are already discovering that certain existing anti-viral medications seem to be effective against this Corona virus.

It’s impossible not to marvel at China’s broad and aggressive domestic response directed by the provincial level governments to restrict movement, restrict transportation, restrict business for a period of time combined with the voluntary dutiful cooperation of its 1.3 billion citizens who are in the majority quietly staying at home these weeks to let the virus pass; this model response is already being hailed by the international community as a remarkable unprecedented response setting a new standard in understanding what is possible for future outbreaks in whatever country they may occur. Is it inconvenient and costly. You bet.

Like I said, something’s not right with the way humanity is responding to what’s happening here. I haven’t put my finger on it because well, it’s certainly complex and the world is upside down in many other ways that I also can’t for the life of me understand or explain without ending up writing a very thick book.

But I do know this: It needs to stop. This vicious, political, xenophobic racist attacks and smearing of all things China needs to stop. It’s really not helping anyone in the political corridors of Washington nor is it doing anything to help the man on the street who is just concerned with taking care of his family.

The xenophobia needs to stop now. Whether in a couple of weeks or months later, this nasty flu type Corona virus will begin declining and the joy of Spring will arrive. Between now and then if you don’t have anything good, anything supportive to say about China or Chinese people, how about you just keep your mouth shut.

My thoughts are, of course, first with all the Chinese people who are going through a time of serious stress, and in some cases personal tragedy, faced with the coronavirus. Above all, my thoughts are with the Chinese medical and emergency services that are in the front line for all of humanity against this threat not only to China but to every country.

But faced with such a serious situation above all what is required is realism and clear-headed thinking – there is absolutely no virtue in “optimism,” there is no virtue in “pessimism,” and least of all is a virtue in panic or exaggeration. The most useful thing I can do is to analyze clearly the data which is appearing internationally on the virus.

Some media are engaging in disgraceful attempts to falsify the situation. But fortunately some serious organisations, realizing the threat, are giving the most accurate information possible.

For example, John Hopkins University, the world-renowned U.S. research university, continues to defy anti-China propaganda in U.S. media by publishing objective data on the coronavirus.

As I conclude this my article, a total of 3,996 patients infected with the novel coronavirus had been discharged from hospital after recovery as announced by the Chinese health authorities.

Monday alone saw 716 people walk out of the hospital after recovery, including 427 in Hubei Province and it is expected that hundreds more will be working out on a daily basis.