The High Commission of India, Freetown celebrated the 74th Republic Day of India on Thursday, 26 January 2023 as ‘Azadi Ka Amrit Mahotsav’. Charge d’ Affaires a.i. Neeraj Kumar Saini hoisted the national flag at a ceremony at the Chancery premises followed by reading of the address of the President of India to the Nation.
- This was followed by a cultural programme of patriotic speeches, dance on patriotic songs and singing of patriotic songs by Indian diaspora children and two dance performances by local Bollywood dance group ‘Original Bollywood Fan Club’ on Shiv Stuti and patriotic song Jai Ho. Brahma Kumari sisters also addressed the gathering.
- ‘India Corner’ was set up on this occasion in the Chancery. They Mission also conveyed the details of interaction of Hon’ble Prime Minister of India with students, teachers and parents on the next edition of ‘Pariksha Pe Charcha’ on Friday, 27th January 2023 and celebration of 2023 as International Year of Millets. This is to highlight that UN has declared 2023 as International Year of Millets.
- Over 150 guests including Indian nationals, friends of India and Embassy officials and their family members participated in the celebration. Refreshments along with Millets Special dishes were served after the function.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
India Takes World Centre-Stage with G20 Presidency
Amb. Ashok Sajjanhar
Introduction
India assumed the Presidency of G20 (the Group of 20 countries comprising 19 large economies and the European Union) for 2023 from Indonesia on 1st December, 2022. While accepting this responsibility, PM Narendra Modi said that India’s G20 presidency will be “inclusive, ambitious, decisive and actionoriented.’’
India’s assumption of the G20 presidency has decisively signaled its emergence as a significant player on the global stage. While most countries in the world, both developed and developing, have found it difficult to effectively handle the challenges thrown up by the Covid-19 pandemic and the RussiaUkraine conflict, India, through its bold leadership and prudent policies, has been able to successfully navigate the headwinds it has encountered over the last three years.
What is the G20?
The G20 is an international forum which represents the world’s biggest economies encompassing both industrialized and developing nations. Its core mandate is to address the major challenges related to the global economy, developmental issues and financial architecture, such as international financial stability, climate change mitigation, sustainable development etc.
Together, the G20 members represent 85% of the global gross product; 75% of international trade, and two thirds of the world population.
Because the G-20 is a forum, its agreements or decisions are not legally binding but they do influence countries’ policies and global cooperation.
The Setting
The Bali G20 Summit in November, 2022 was held at a particularly difficult and uncertain moment in international politics and economics.
The world has been subjected to huge instability and volatility over the last 3 years inter-alia due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has had global implications through high inflation, shortages of food, fertilizers and energy, unsustainable debts, supply chain disruptions and more. In addition, the challenges of climate change, terrorism, nuclear proliferation, achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and others continue to unsettle the global economy and community. It is in these circumstances that India has been entrusted with the responsibility of steering the activities of the G20.
The Summit
India emerged as a ‘’leader, solution provider and consensus builder’’ at the Bali Summit. The shadow of the Russia-Ukraine conflict loomed large over the deliberations in the run up to the Summit. It was not found possible to arrive at a mutually acceptable language on the conflict in several of the G20 meetings that preceded the Summit. India was able to act as a bridge between the opposing sides on the issue. A compromise solution was achieved which reiterated the assertion by PM Modi to Russian President Vladimir Putin in Samarkand on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit that ‘’today is not an era of war,’’ and that the solution to the conflict should be found through ‘’dialogue and diplomacy.’’
The Declaration, a 19-page document addressed in considerable detail, the major challenges confronting the global economy and financial system.
In his remarks in the first session on Energy and Food Security, PM Modi clearly stated that the United Nations had failed to resolve the political and economic challenges afflicting the world. It is because of the failure of the multilateral organizations that the significance of G20 has increased. PM Modi exhorted the countries to evolve a new world order as had been done after the Second World War.
While speaking on the need to make digital connectivity truly inclusive, PM Modi asserted that “digital transformation is the most remarkable change of our era. The proper use of digital technologies can become a force multiplier in the decades-long global fight against poverty. Digital solutions can also be helpful in the fight against climate change.’’ PM Modi asserted that India’s experience of the past few years has shown that if digital architecture is made ‘inclusive’, it can bring about socio-economic transformation. He declared that the principle of “Data for development” will be an integral part of the overall theme of India’s Presidency “One Earth, One Family, One Future”. Batting for sustainable growth, PM Modi stated that LiFE i.e. ‘Lifestyle for Environment’ campaign can make a big contribution to this. He encouraged the global community to make sustainable lifestyle a mass movement.
India’s Presidency
During its Presidency, India will aspire to deliver outcomes in areas of critical interest such as integrating the climate and development agenda, accelerating progress towards achieving the SDG 2030 mandate, furthering development cooperation, supporting small and marginal farmers, enhancing food security and nutrition, addressing global skill gaps, women empowerment, promotion of blue economy and coastal sustainability, digital health solutions, green hydrogen and tech-enabled learning.
India hit the ground running on assuming the Presidency of the G20. Even before taking over charge, India organized a Special Briefing for envoys of G20 and invitee countries and International Organisations in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on 26th November, 2022. Starting with the first 4-day Sherpa meeting in Udaipur from 4th December, 2022, India has already organized several substantive meetings including the first Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting in Bengaluru; first Meeting of the G20 Development Working Group in Mumbai; first Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion in Kolkata, and several more.
India has also emerged as a strong and clear voice of the global South. There is a persistent feeling among several small countries that their concerns and problems do not get the attention they deserve. In a remarkable path-breaking initiative, India organized the ‘’Voice of the Global South for Human-Centric Development’’ virtual Summit on 12th-13th January, 2023. The theme of the
Summit was ‘’Unity of Voice, Unity of Purpose.’’ The Summit brought together 125 countries of the global South to share their perspectives and priorities on a common platform across a whole range of issues. The Summit, as is evident from the numbers, received a strong, positive response across the world. This initiative was inspired by PM Modi’s vision of ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas, Sabka Prayas’ (the support of everyone, development for everyone, trust of everyone with everyone’s effort), and was also underpinned by India’s philosophy of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam (The World is One Family). The Summit was a platform to exchange ideas and solutions, and to unite in voice and purpose, the issues of concern and priorities for the Global South.
In his Opening Address, PM Modi declared that the Voice of the Global South will be the Voice of India and the priorities of the developing countries will be India’s priorities. PM Modi gave a call for 4Rs – ‘Respond, Recognize, Respect and Reform’ in context of various priorities of the developing world. Prime Minister also announced a number of new initiatives by India. These include – AarogyaMaitri whereby essential medical supplies will be provided to any developing country affected by natural disasters or humanitarian crisis; Global South Centre of Excellence for research on development solutions to be implemented around the world; Global South Science and Technology Initiative to share expertise in areas such as space technology and nuclear energy; Global South Young Diplomats Forum; and Global South Scholarships.
While assuming the Presidency, PM Modi had said that India’s G20 priorities would be shaped in consultation with not just G20 partners, but also with our fellow travellers in the Global South, whose voice often goes unheard. This Summit was an opportunity for those countries that are not part of the G20 process to share their ideas, concerns, aspirations and expectations. Several developing countries like Bangladesh, Egypt, Mauritius, Nigeria, Oman and the UAE have also been invited as “guest countries” by India to the G20 Summit in September this year.
Conclusion
Accepting the G20 Presidency, PM Modi declared that India will organize more than 200 G20 meetings in 55 different cities on 35 different themes around the country. Visitors to India will get the full experience of its amazing diversity, inclusive traditions, and cultural richness. He invited all G20 members and international organizations ‘’to participate in this unique celebration in India, the ‘Mother of Democracy’ ’’.
Assuming charge of the G20 at this critical moment is a huge challenge. It is also a great opportunity. The world is looking at India with hope and expectation to effectively deal with the turbulence engineered by the Covid-19, Russia-Ukraine conflict, global economic downturn, and climate change. India is committed to reach out to all countries of the North and the South, the East and the West to ensure as PM Modi said at the Bali G20 Summit that “next year when the G20 meets in the holy land of Buddha and Gandhi, we will all agree to convey a strong message of peace to the world.’’
India will hand over the baton to Brazil at the end of November, 2023. It is for the first time that the troika comprising of the current, past and future Presidencies of G20 will comprise of three major developing and emerging economies. This provides a unique opportunity to India, supported by Indonesia and Brazil, to make a significant contribution to peace, security, stability and prosperity in the world. India looks forward to its Presidency of the G20 with determination and confidence.
***
[The writer is former Indian Ambassador to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia.]
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Mighty Millets – Super Grains of Power
Prof. Rajeev K Varshney
Super-grain, super-food and wonder-grain are some of the adjectives often used to describe millets, one of the oldest foods known to humans, and probably the first grain used for domestic purposes.
The unanimous adoption by the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) of the resolution to declare 2023 as the International Year of Millets, a proposal sponsored by India and supported by over 70 nations, underlines the international community’s support to recognise the importance and benefits of these grains for the global food system. Speaking on the subject during the adoption of the resolution India’s former permanent representative to the UN, Ambassador TS Tirumurti, said, “There is an urgent need to promote the nutritional and ecological benefit of millets to consumers, producers and decision-makers to improve production efficiencies, research, and development, investments, and food sector linkages”. He expressed gratitude to all the co-sponsors, especially Bangladesh, Kenya, Nepal, Nigeria, Russia, Senegal and all member states of the UN for their strong support.
Several ancient Indian scriptures make references to millets and the traces of millets have been found in the archaeological sites of Harappa and Mohenjodaro. For many years, millets were a part of our daily diet. Today, there is a growing realisation among Indian farmers that cultivating millets requires fewer inputs and it is also an economically viable option, especially in harsh and dry environments. This is supported by the new-found knowledge on the health benefits of millets. Also, over the last few years, the Indian government has been making extensive efforts to encourage the cultivation of millets.
The Union Government of India, headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, had declared 2018 as the National Year of Millets to boost production of the nutrient-rich grains.
A smart food
Millets are an important staple cereal crop for millions of smallholder dry-land farmers across Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. They are also called nutri-cereals or dry-land cereals, and include sorghum (jowar), pearl millet (bajra), finger millet (ragi), foxtail millet (kangni), proso millet (chena), barnyard millet (samvat ke chawal) and kodo millet (kodon), and offer high nutritional benefits. Millets are also referred to as ‘Smart Food’, which are good for the consumers, the planet and the farmers. For instance, finger millet has three times the amount of calcium as in milk, and most millets have very high levels of iron and zinc, low glycemic index, good levels of protein and fibre, and are gluten-free.
Millets can also contribute to addressing some of the largest global issues in unison: poor diet (malnutrition to obesity); environmental issues (climate change, water scarcity and environmental degradation); and rural poverty. They have a low carbon footprint and have the ability to survive and grow in warm climate with very little water. They are climate-smart and hence constitute a good risk management strategy for farmers as compared to rice and wheat crops, which need higher quantities of water and fertiliser supplements.
Indian millets at the forefront
Efforts to bring Indian millets to the international forefront began in October 2017, during the Committee on Food Security event in Rome. A series of meetings involving the Government of India (GOI), the agricultural research body International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) and other stakeholders were organised at the Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) of the UN to identify the process of promoting the idea with FAO departments and the Indian Embassy in Rome. Following this initial step, in November 2017, the Government of India’s then Union Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh wrote to the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, requesting the inclusion of the proposal in the UN General Assembly agenda for an International Year of Millets in 2018. Although this process can typically take five years, the GOI, ICRISAT, the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) of the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare and its millets research institute, ICAR – Indian Institute of Millets Research (IIMR), along with others pursued the cause, which came to fruition in 2021.
It is encouraging to note that the world is talking about depleting natural resources like arable land and water, and the pressing need to produce more to meet the food and nutritional requirements of the growing population. Staple crops like rice and wheat are part of our traditional diets but are known to be water guzzlers, challenging our farmers, consumers and policy makers to explore ways to diversify our cropping system. Millets suit this requirement.
Easy to cultivate
Tolerant to drought and high temperature, and other climate change vagaries, millets are mostly cultivated on low-fertile land, mountainous, tribal and rain-fed areas of India like Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Telangana. As per the Food and Agriculture Organization’ data, the global millet production stands at about 90 million tonnes, of which India’s share is about 19 million tonnes.
However, as productivity for a majority of millets is very low, several Indian and international organisations have been working towards enhancing crop productivity by using multi-disciplinary approaches. For instance, the Pearl Millet Genome Sequencing Consortium, comprising 30 institutions, decoded the genome of pearl millet and identified genes for drought-and-heat-tolerance that may be useful not only for millets but also for other major cereals. These researches have contributed to developing several high-yielding hybrids and improved varieties of several millets that are grown by farmers in India.
Mission millet
At the national level, the Government of India has been promoting the cultivation of millets on a mission mode to achieve nutritional security, following recommendations by a committee headed by NITI Aayog. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi dedicated 17 biofortified varieties of eight crops, which included two varieties of finger millets and one variety of little millet, on October 16, 2020, on the 75th anniversary of the FAO. As a part of the government’s initiative under the National Food Security Act, state governments have been advised to procure millets at minimum support price and distribute them under the public distribution system (PDS). India’s National Nutrition Mission, POSHAN Abhiyaan, has also advised state governments to include millets under large public system delivery channels such as Integrated Child Development Services, Mid-Day Meals etc.
While the government and research organisations work towards higher productivity of millets, nutritionists and chefs are contributing towards the promotion of millets by creating unique millet dishes. Promotions are being done on easy ways to cook millets, convenient tasty millet recipes, and word is being spread about their nutritional benefits and environment-friendly qualities among all stakeholders – both at the national and international level. The UN Food Systems Summit 2021 also offers additional opportunity to make the food systems sustainable and resilient. The declaration of 2023 as the ‘International Year of Millets’ will certainly support all these efforts and make millets a popular and healthy food choice for all.
***
[Prof. Rajeev K Varshney is a Research Program Director at the International Crops Research Institute for Semi- Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Hyderabad, India and an Adjunct Professor with Food Futures Institute, Murdoch University, Australia]
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
75 Years of India and the United Nations
Amb. Asoke Mukerji
India is one of the 51 original founders of the United Nations (UN). India, following the independence from Britain on 15 August 1947, “continued” as an original member of the UN.
Mrs. Vijayalakshmi Pandit, delivered independent India’s first major statement in the UN General Assembly (UNGA) on 19 September 1947. She noted that “the great Powers, instead of coming closer together, are drifting farther apart. There is tension, suspense and anxiety, and an uneasy awareness that things are perhaps moving towards some new and annihilating disaster for mankind…”. Rejecting attempts to make India part of the ideological confrontation of the Cold War, Mrs. Pandit said that “ideology is less important than practice. We cannot eat an ideology; we cannot brandish an ideology, and feel that we are clothed and housed. Food, clothing, shelter, education, medical services‐these are the things we need.” Independent India had clearly articulated its vision of the UN as providing a supportive global framework for the socio-economic transformation of India.
This vision has been sustained during the past 75 years. Two major achievements stand as a legacy to India’s contribution to the UN so far. First, the successful campaign to democratize international relations enabling former colonial countries to become independent members of the UNGA with the historic unanimous Decolonization Resolution adopted by the UNGA in December 1960. Second, the incremental positioning of sustainable development issues firmly on the central agenda of the UN and its specialized agencies, encapsulated in the UNGA’s unanimous adoption of Agenda 2030 with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in September 2015. The SDGs represent a holistic matrix of human endeavour, covering health, education, gender, energy, employment, infrastructure, inequalities, urban growth, consumption, and the environment on land, sea, and air.
These two achievements were made possible by India’s proactive diplomatic engagement with other member-states of the UNGA on the basis of shared values and interests. In 1961, India became a co-founder of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) that rejected getting mired in the confrontational bloc politics of the Cold War. The NAM today has 120 of the 193 member-states of the UNGA as its members. In 1964, India joined 77 newly independent developing countries to establish the Group of 77 (G-77), which currently has 134 member-states in the UNGA. The driving force of the G-77 is the creation of an equitable new international order, based on the Charter of Algiers adopted by it in 1967, and Agenda 2030 is the G-77’s core interest in the UN.
The inclusion of democracy and sustainable development added substance to the activities of the UN and its specialized agencies over the past 75 years. The Preamble of the UN’s Agenda 2030 underscores that, “There can be no sustainable development without peace and no peace without sustainable development.” Yet, international peace and security is increasingly under threat, primarily due to an increasingly ineffective UN Security Council (UNSC). Currently, over 50 conflicts are on the agenda of the UNSC, including in the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, Mali, the Central African Republic, Libya, Syria, Yemen, the Middle East, Iraq, Afghanistan, Myanmar, and Ukraine. These conflicts have displaced almost 90 million people across the continents.
In South Asia, the rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan brought about by the UNSC’s refusal to uphold the Doha Agreement endorsed by UNSC resolution 2513 in March 2020 has left half of Afghanistan’s population (about 20 million women) without their basic human rights of education and employment, which are integral to implement Agenda 2030.
Responding to these challenges to international peace, security, and development, Prime Minister of India Shri Narendra Modi proposed an ambitious project to “reform multilateralism” to make it human-centric during the 75th anniversary Summit of the UN in September 2020. The two main objectives of this are reforms within the UN, particularly of the UNSC; and reforms of interlinked multilateral organizations (the UN, its specialized agencies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and the World Trade Organization) to create a coherent global framework to respond to common challenges facing mankind. Developing countries, which form the vast majority of the UN membership, have a direct stake in reforming the UN and other multilateral institutions to make them more efficient and responsive. Agenda 2030’s SDG 16.8 contains the unanimous commitment of the UNGA to reform multilateral institutions to “broaden and strengthen the participation of developing countries in the institutions of global governance”.
On 12-13 January 2023, India hosted a virtual “Voice of the Global South for Human-centric Development” Summit. A measure of the importance of India’s initiative can be gauged from the fact that 125 countries responded to this initiative, including 47 from Africa, 31 from Asia, 29 from Latin America and the Caribbean, 11 from Oceania, and 7 from Europe. Participating countries were linked by common concerns regarding issues of sustainable development of priority to them, on which existing multilateral institutions have failed to provide significant outcomes.
The outcome of the New Delhi Global South Summit will be integrated into the G-20 process by India, which is the current chair of the G-20. It is significant that the next two chairs of the G-20 are also prominent participants in the New Delhi Global South Summit, with Brazil taking the chair in 2024, and South Africa in 2025. In parallel, India’s initiative provides a major input into the preparations for the UN’s “Summit of the Future”, planned to be held in New York in September 2024.
Achieving “reformed multilateralism” through these processes would require world leaders to review the international situation after the disruptions caused by natural and manmade causes over the past three years, which have set back the momentum of constructive international cooperation. In this context, a decision by the UN’s “Summit of the Future” to convene a General Conference of the UN in 2025, when the organization marks its 80th anniversary, would be appropriate. As a leading voice for diplomacy, dialogue, and development, India must play a major role in ensuring this objective.
***
[Ambassador (Retd.) Asoke Mukerji retired as India’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations in New York in December 2015 after over 37 years in the Indian Foreign Service.]
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Amrit Kaal of the Indian Economy
Dr. Bibek Debroy
Recently, India celebrated 75 years of Independence. The idea of Amritkaal extends that forward to the next twenty-five years, to 2047, when India will celebrate 100 years of Independence. The India of 2023 is different from the India of 1947 and the India of 2047 will be different from the India of 2023 in ways few can anticipate and project today. If one casts one’s mind back, how many would have guessed changes wrought in India in the last twentyfive years? The world is uncertain and the long-run even more so. While the future is always uncertain, the current state of the world has been permeated with an additional dose of uncertainty – Covid, geo-political tensions, collapse of the multilateral system and regionalism, retreat of advanced countries from globalization and the dreaded expression of “recession” in some of those countries. These are external shocks that have been thrust on India, as they have on many emerging market economies, and underline collapse of institutions that provide global public goods, Bretton Woods Institutions included. In passing, global governance has yet to accept rise of economies like India. Lord Keynes is often quoted, usually out of context. A cliched quote is, “In the long run we are all dead.” If one reads the complete text (The Tract on Monetary Reform, 1923), one will find the intention wasn’t quite what out-of-context quotes convey.
There is much that is uncertain, in the present and in the long-run of the future. But there is much that is also certain. Within that band of certainty, it is impossible to dispute India’s inexorable economic rise. At one point, much was made of the Goldman Sachs report, on dreaming with BRICS and path to 2050, authored in 2003. (1) In that report, the average real rate of GDP growth for India was around 5.5%, the explosion in aggregate GDP and per capita GDP by 2050 explained by the nature of the exponential function. (2) That report didn’t have a figure for 2047, but did have one for 2045. In 2045, India’s aggregate GDP was projected to be 18.8 trillion US dollars and per capita GDP of just over 12,000 US dollars. (3) None of the reasons behind optimistic projections have been nullified by the present uncertainty – increase in savings/investment rates as a result of demographic transition and income growth, growth drivers in more efficient land, labour and capital markets and productivity enhancement. To use an economist’s expression, India is still within the production possibility frontier, not on it. To state it differently, aggregate growth for India is a summation of growth in States and States are within their respective frontiers, providing plenty of endogenous slack for growth. Had the external world been more benign, India might have grown at 9%. Typically, one tends to extrapolate the gloominess of the present to the future. It is by no means obvious that the external world will continue to be difficult for the next twenty-five years. But even if that were to be the case, India might not grow at 9%. What real growth rate seems reasonable?
The answer depends on the person making the projection and the assumptions. A nominal figure depends on assumptions made about inflation, which is why projections are often in real terms, in today’s dollars. A dollar figure also depends on assumptions made about the dollar/rupee exchange rate, which is why projections often assume the current exchange rate. (Goldman Sachs assumed rupee appreciation vis-à-vis the dollar.) A PPP (purchasing power parity) exercise is naturally different. With inflation and exchange rate changes out of the way, what trajectory of real growth sounds reasonable? The pessimistic forecaster will point to state of the external world and domestic inefficiencies and opt for 5.5%. The optimistic forecaster will point to empowerment through ease of living and provision of basic necessities, ease of doing business, supply-side reforms, and Union government’s capital expenditure and opt for 7.5%. That’s the rough range, with the recognition that as one grows, growth rates slow. As one moves up the development ladder, it becomes more difficult to grow as fast, with the caveat that different States are at different levels of development and there is plenty of slack. To return to the certainty of the long-run, one can plug in one’s own assumptions about real growth, say something like 6.5%, between the two extremes of 5.5% and 7.5%. In 2047, India’s per capita income will then be something like 10,000 US dollars. The total size of the economy will approach 20 trillion US dollars. These numbers are roughly in the same range as the Goldman Sachs one. In Goldman Sachs, the role of exchange rate appreciation was relatively more. In such projections, the role of real growth is relatively more.
If reforms drive the Indian growth trajectory to higher than 6.5%, and that Citius, Altius and Fortius possibility cannot be ruled out, the corresponding numbers will be higher. Even with the relatively conservative numbers, this means India will be the third largest economy in the world, after United States and China and this will naturally be reflected in India’s global clout. If one does a PPP ranking, India will be the second largest, after China. The annual rate of population growth has slowed and is now less than 1%. Nevertheless, in 2047, India will be the most populous country in the world, with a population of something like 1.6 billion. Expressions like “developed country” are rarely used these days. The term no longer has a specific definition. The World Bank uses terms like middle-income. Today, India is classified as a lower middle-income economy. In 2047, India will move to the upper middle-income category. Once one approaches a per capita income of 13,000 US dollars, the status becomes high-income. That’s when India can be said to be “developed”. In 2047, India will fall short, but the face of poverty, as we know it, will be completely transformed.
Measurement of poverty is based on the notion of a poverty line and using a multi-dimensional poverty index, UNDP has recently documented the sharp drop in number of poor people in India. As economies develop, the notion of a poverty line is of course moved up, beyond a subsistence level of consumption. However, officially, the poverty line used is still the Tendulkar poverty line. Unfortunately, consumption expenditure data, used to measure poverty, do not exist beyond 2011-12. Therefore, different people have used different assumptions to measure poverty today. If one uses PLFS (periodic labour force survey) data and the Tendulkar poverty line, the poverty ratio (percentage of population below the poverty line) is around 17% now. By 2047, this ratio will decline to around 5%. SDG (sustainable development goal) reports, among others, have documented pockets of deprivation in selected geographical regions, targeted by the government through the aspirational districts programme. India is heterogeneous and despite provision of basic necessities (physical and social infrastructure, financial inclusion, access to markets, technology, digital access) and the overall message of empowerment, there will be pockets of poverty, even in 2047. But the nature of that poverty will be very different. India will achieve universal literacy, or be pretty close to it. UNDP uses HDI (human development index), an aggregate measure, to gauge human development, moving beyond poverty ratios. Today, India is in the medium human development category, judged by HDI. In 2047, India will move to the high human development category.
There are five transitions going on and these will be even more marked in 2047. First, there is a rural to urban shift and urbanization is correlated with development. By 2047, almost 60% of India’s population will be urbanized. Delhi and Kolkata with populations of around 35 million, Mumbai with more than 40 million. The mind boggles and the government’s programmes are meant to ensure that urbanization is managed better. Second, there will be grater formalization of the economy. Yet again, formalization is correlated with growth and development. Individuals will have formal job contracts. MSMEs will graduate to become legally registered. Indian companies will become larger and more efficient, integrated into global supply chains. Third, the percentage of the population that earns a living from agriculture will decline. Agriculture’s share in GDP will decline to something like 5% and the percentage of population that earns a living from agriculture will not be more than 20%. Fourth, within agriculture, there will be a shift away towards commercialization and diversification and larger farms. Fifth, there will be greater citizen participation in governance with the “sabka prayas” theme. For years, there was a colonial chip on the shoulder. But the present India is a proud India, a resilient India, an aspiring India. Amritkaal is about that and the country is making great strides on economic front with greater confidence and entrepreneurship.
***
[Bibek Debroy is the Chairman, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, Government of India.]
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Sky is the Limit to India’s Soft Power
Amb. Lakshmi Puri
When the Golden Globe Award for ‘Best Original Song’ was announced on 10 January 2023, the roar of applause for the winning movie ‘RRR’ was echoed manifold in India and the world. It signified the celebration of India’s vibrant cinematic tradition—globally the largest, most prolific and variegated—but also of the richness and virtuosity of Indian art and culture itself. As India emerges from decades of diffidence to assume a more prominent position on the world stage, this victory feels like a new moment for India@75, a celebration of its soft power renaissance.
A country’s soft power, according to Joseph Nye, rests on three resources: its attractive culture, the political values it lives up to, and foreign policies perceived by others as legitimate and having moral authority. It seeks preferred outcomes through attraction and influence rather than coercion or payment in international relations. PM Modi has consciously posited the idea of the civilisational state of India on the world stage and has sought to swell the tide of its consequential soft power in his global engagement strategy.
As he averred, “India is not only a nation, but also an idea and a culture.” One of the oldest, largest and greatest civilisations, India—unlike other civilisations —has maintained continuity with its glorious past. It has built a unique, assimilative and universalist culture that extends beyond historical territory, ethnolinguistic groups, and modes of governance. From this 5,000-years-old tree of wisdom emanate various branches of social, political, spiritual and transcendental thought that govern everyday life in India. They manifest themselves in India’s vision and policymaking on, and for, global public good.
The G20 theme of “One Earth, One Family, One Future” under India’s presidency in 2023 adopts the core tenets of humanism. On issues of global primacy, especially on achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in the spirit of Gandhian Sarvodaya through Antyodaya – India’s self-belief and actions are being commended. Whether it is his vision for cleanliness, sanitation, housing, food, and energy for all, or digital and financial inclusion and skilling missions, PM Modi has pioneered solutions that are replicable to scale in the Global South.
Winner of the ‘Champion of the Earth Award’, PM Modi has drawn upon India’s deep conviction about harmony with nature to espouse the causes of Green Development, Lifestyle for Environment Mission, and his Panchamrit Action Plan on climate action. This is now a priority theme of India’s G20 Presidency. His leadership on climate justice has won acclaim from developed and developing nations alike. Similarly, India’s Vaccine Maitri, health cooperation, and humanitarian assistance have evoked appreciation.
The Modi government seeks to harness India’s soft power on a wider canvas, to drive a positive India narrative, and to capture alignment in global and regional geopolitics as the global order is re-formed in the wake of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Prime Minister’s pronouncement of “this is not the time for war” and propagation of the ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ philosophy has gleaned many international admirers. Soft power is complementary to and mainstreamed into India’s military and economic capabilities. There is a paradigmatic shift in our strategic culture. He has led from the front, and has made concerted efforts to popularise India’s soft power.
Yoga, of course, has become the most successful carrier of India’s soft power. It has become global phenomenon with yoga chant echoing from Japan to the US and from Saudi Arabia to Brazil! The UN General Assembly resolution to make 21 June as the ‘International Day of Yoga’ with the highest support of 175 member-states testifies to its universal appeal. Ayurveda, beauty and wellness, and the flavourful palettes of Indian cuisine have captivated the world. Diwali is fast becoming a global festival.
Indian films are a significant cultural export and influencers of global mores and trendsetters. Raj Kapur and Satyajit Ray shaped the world of cinema forever. Actors like Amitabh Bachchan, Rajinikanth, Hrithik Roshan, Aamir Khan, Shahrukh Khan, Prabhas, and Ram Charan have fan following in Asia, Arab and African countries besides Europe, and North and South America. Internet, YouTube, OTT and social media platforms have further spread the popularity of Indian stories, and classical and modern music and dance. The wider creative industry of India, including design, textile, fashion, painting, sculpture, crafts, architecture, languages and literature, are admired and emulated for their original and rich aesthetic and design sensibilities with amenability to fusion.
India is leveraging its intrinsic intellectual capital and entrepreneurial genius in positioning the country at the forefront of global knowledge, ICT, and increasingly, Tech 4.0 capabilities that include AI. Unsurprisingly, many of the biggest industry and tech leaders in the West are of Indian origin. India is today the fastest-growing entrepreneurial ecosystem in the world. India’s emerging economy story is buttressed by its cultural and historical people-topeople links with every corner of the world through trade, travel and tourism as well as its flourishing diaspora of 32 million, with 2.5 million Indians migrating overseas every year – the highest in the world.
India’s soft power as the mother of all democracies, and the world’s largest, pluralistic and tolerant one, has come into sharper focus with its consensus building, and cooperative and mutual benefit ethos which is also the UN ideal. This is in stark contrast to the approach of some authoritarian large powers with their use of coercive power to further their national interests at grave cost to other nations.
It is imperative that India wins this battle of ideas and systems because it portends the success of India’s own sustainable development model and the Indian way as much as it validates a viable democratic national and international order. As President Biden said to PM Modi during the Quad Summit in May 2022, India’s handling of the pandemic showed that “democracies can deliver” and busted the myth that “autocracies can better handle the rapidly changing world.” The Global South expects India to reinforce a model of collaborative development that does not reduce diplomacy to a zero-sum game. The Prime Minister himself acknowledged that, “the world is looking at India proudly and with anticipation….searching for solutions to the problems on the soil of India. This change in the world, in the thinking of the world is the result of our experiential journey of 75 years.”
India is reaping both intended gains through well-executed government efforts but also many unintended gains from the soft power of ‘brand India’. Given its huge potential of demographic dividend towards the goal of a 40 trillion economy by 2047, the reservoir of the largest youth and women power, matched with robust democratic institutions and strong military capabilities, India is on the pathway to becoming a leading power. Its burgeoning soft power will ensure that this rise is benign, benevolent and peaceful, one that strengthens a democratic, sustainably developed, and rules-based global order. India’s farsighted thought leadership draws strength from Swami Vivekananda who foresaw “that form of Mother India, the Mother goddess, who shall once again be the Vishwaguru and would lead the world.” ***
[Writer is a retired Indian diplomat, former Assistant Secretary-General at the
United Nations, and former Executive Director of UN Women.]
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
